I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering €“ I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering €“ this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Commanders vs. Broncos.
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NFL Betting Primer: Commanders vs. Broncos
Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos – Spread Line: DEN -3.5
This game is gross. Two offenses coming off rather uninspiring performances versus inferior opponents that they should have taken advantage of. But I’ll give more credit to the Commanders in this capacity because they would have covered the seven points had it not been for a fumble-six. And outside that they dominated the game. Washington’s defense didn’t allow any room for the Cardinals to move the ball, and I’d expect Denver’s offense to struggle as well after their poor showing versus a very underwhelming Raiders defense at home in Week 1. Their offense is totally anemic with RB and TE dump-offs as the forefront approach with Russell Wilson under center. Wilson averaged 5.2 yards per attempt in Week 1. 38% target share to RBs. Not conducive to scoring points. This team NEEDs Jerry Jeudy to save the offense coming off a hamstring injury.
And no team shut down the run more than Washington in Week 1, as their fiery defensive front generated the most expected points versus the run.
This game screams like a dull struggle fest, where I don’t want to back either side. Bet the props (mostly unders). But if I must pick a side, I’ll take the Commanders +3.5. I’ll continue to bet against Russell Wilson, who is a combined 10-20 in his last 30 games. Until I see Sean Payton work his magic on Wilson, I’ll continue to fade the overvalued Broncos.
Take the under on Terry McLaurin. Two words. Patrick Suratin. Brutal matchup. Also, McLaurin posted just a 14% target share in Sam Howell’s second start. 4th in targets in Week 1. Just four targets overall. Woof. Conversely, bet the over on Jahan Dotson. Dotson (7 targets) went 5 for 40 receiving yards in Week 1. He led the team in routes run (95% route participation) and air yards share (30%). Sell McLaurin and buy Dotson after a quiet Week 1. WR1 Alpha usage. Denver couldn’t cover Jakobi Meyers with No. 2 cornerback, Damarri Mathis, who Dotson will get plenty of in Week 2.
Brian Robinson just barely got over his rushing yards prop last week versus the Arizona Cardinals. I doubt he will find success this we though, as we pound the under on his rushing line set at 55.5 rushing yards. Denver stifled the Raiders ground game in Week 1, holding 2022’s leading rusher, Josh Jacobs, to just 48 yards on 19 carries (2.5 yards per carry). Robinson isn’t 50% of a runner Jacobs is. The under is the play.
- My picks: Commanders +3.5 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook, Under 39.5 (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook), Broncos under 21.5 points (-118 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- My props: Terry McLaurin UNDER 47.5 receiving yards (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook), Jahan Dotson OVER 43.5 receiving yards (-120 BetMGM), Brian Robinson UNDER 55.5 rushing yards (-115 Caesars Sportsbook)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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