Matt Nagy’s End Game Strategy + Week 9 Preview

Matt Nagy’s End Game Strategy + Week 9 Preview (2019)

October 29, 2019 – by Jason Lisk

Chicago is having a tough time with kickers (Photo by Daniel Bartel/Icon Sportswire)

The Chicago Bears lost their third game in a row on Sunday, and dropped to 3-4 overall. In the NFC, that appears to be a costly blow to their playoff odds, considering that the two teams currently in wildcard position are currently 6-2.

The way it happened, though, was a painful reminder of last year’s playoff loss, when Chicago missed a 43-yard kick at the end of the game. Head coach Matt Nagy made a decision that is not out of line with how many NFL coaches treat field goals at the end of the game, but one that was still costly.

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Matt Nagy Kneels 

Nagy is catching a lot of criticism today for his decision to kneel the ball once the Bears got it to the Chargers’ 21-yard line, down by one point, with 43 seconds remaining. The Chargers had been using their timeouts to try to preserve time if necessary, and used their final one after quarterback Mitch Trubisky’s 11-yard run gave Chicago a new set of downs.

That’s when Nagy opted to come out of that timeout and just kneel the ball, let the clock run all the way down to four seconds, then use his final timeout and kick it.

It was a very conservative decision, and took the ball out of Trubisky’s hands, rather than try to get any closer for a score.

“Yeah, I’m not even going to get into that,” Nagy said in his post-game comments. “I have zero thought of running the ball and taking the chance of fumbling the football. They know you’re running the football, so you lose three, four yards, so that wasn’t even in our process as coaches to think about that. I’ll just be brutally clear: Zero thought of throwing the football, zero thought of running the football. You understand me? That’s exactly what it was. It’s as simple as that.”

Closer is Better

While coaches tend to treat field goal range as a binary choice, either being in range or out of range, that’s not the reality. Field goal percentages increase as kickers get closer to the goal posts. Field goals of 40 yards , for example, have been converted 86% (146 of 170) of the time since the start of the 2014 season. Move ten yards back, to a 50-yard attempt, and kickers have made the kick 69% of the time (110 of 159). Move ten yards closer, to a 30-yard attempt, and the success rate is 95% (135 of 142).

The rate of improvement to the win odds is not linear. There’s a bigger difference between getting from a 50-yard kick to a 40-yard kick than improving from a 30-yard kick where the conversion rate is around 95%, to a 20-yard kick where it is near automatic.

In the case of Chicago yesterday, though, the gain of about +1% in win odds for every yard still made trying for positive gains the likely better play.

Coaching Out of Fear

Nagy’s comments reveal that he was worried about fumbling and losing yards if he ran the ball. A lack of trust in his quarterback also underscores the decision. Coaches do need to weigh the downside risk of decisions. That’s why attempting to go from a 25-yard kick to a 20-yard kick or a touchdown may be a poor risk to take on, when a turnover could happen, and the win odds are in excess of 95%.

But it’s important to accurately weigh that downside. There’s a famous football coaching adage,“when you throw a pass three things can happen to it, and two of them are bad.” But that quote was popularized over 50 years ago, when incompletions and interceptions were far more likely. The three things don’t happen at the same rate.

Similarly, when it comes to rushing attempts, a coach would be well-served to understand the true risks. Using the Game Play Finder at Pro Football Reference, since the start of 2014 there have been 66 rush attempts in the final minute of a game, between the opponent’s 35-yard line and 15-yard line, with the offense either trailing by 3 or fewer points, or tied. Basically, situations where the team would have been in field goal range where a field goal would win or tie the game.

Zero of those plays resulted in a fumble. Four of them (6%) resulted in a loss of two or more yards. That’s the same number that resulted in a gain of more than ten yards. This is not to say that the risk of fumbling was zero (Bears starting running David Montgomery, for example, has fumbled once in 98 career rushes). It is to say that Nagy appears to be vastly overestimating the downside risk of something like a huge loss on a hit deep in the backfield and a fumble, compared to the positives of gaining more yards or even trying to score a touchdown before having to kick.

And now, the Bears have only an 8% of reaching the playoffs according to our latest projections.

Other Key News Heading Into NFL Week 9

Houston defensive end J.J. Watt will miss the rest of the season with a torn pectoral muscle. The three-time Defensive Player of the Year has played in only 32 games total over the last four seasons, and three have ended with him going on injured reserve.Joe Flacco was not happy with the Broncos’ conservative playcalling with a one-point lead on the road at Indianapolis, and made some pointed comments that seem to be directed as a message to his head coach Vic Fangio. And now, he reportedly has a back injury and will not be starting next week.  Brandon Allen, a 27-year-old former sixth round pick, has never thrown a pass in the regular season and will be the starter against Cleveland in Week 9.Speaking of coaching decisions, Cleveland head coach Freddie Kitchens continues to provide plenty of fodder. The Browns faced a 4th and 11 at their own 24 down by 17 with about six minutes remaining. He initially sent out the punt unit, but then had them intentionally commit a false start so he could go for it on 4th and 16.Five teams (Atlanta, Cincinnati, Miami, New York Jets, Washington) have one or fewer wins as we head to Week 9. That’s the most since the 2009 season, when six teams had one or zero wins after the first eight weeks.With running backs Chase Edmonds and David Johnson injured, the Arizona Cardinals traded with Miami for Kenyan Drake.

Early Look-Ahead to Week 9 Key Matchups

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars in London

Gardner Minshew made his first career start in the first matchup at Houston, as the Jaguars came up just short on a two-point conversion attempt to win it. This rematch over in London is huge for Jacksonville if they want to entertain real playoff aspirations in the AFC. If Jacksonville can win, they pull into a tie with Houston at 5-4, while a loss would leave them two games back of Houston for a wildcard spot, and without the tiebreaker.

Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs

Will Patrick Mahomes play in this one? The initial reports were that he would be out for three weeks, though he did participate in practices last week before being ruled out. This one is off the board at the start of the week due to the Mahomes uncertainty. Minnesota has surged to 6-2, and needs a win to keep pace with the Packers in the NFC North. Kansas City has lost three straight games at Arrowhead.

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens

New England finally plays a team with a pulse this week. It’s the first matchup against a team ranked inside our Top 20 in the predictive power rankings since the season opener against Pittsburgh. Lamar Jackson started the year with 10 passing touchdowns in the first four games, but has only one in the last three. He does have consecutive games with over 100 rushing yards. The Patriots, meanwhile, have allowed only two passing touchdowns all year.

This one determines if there will be any intrigue when it comes to the Patriots and the No. 1 overall playoff seed in the AFC.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy NFL Week 9, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 9 games, please check out our NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.

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